Florida Panthers at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Florida Panthers (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 52.1%

FLA: 47.9%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.08

FLA: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	WPG	FLA
Season SV%	0.907	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	22	19	3	86.4%	3.46	2	0.46
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	19	18	1	94.7%	2.10	0	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • WPG at home vs FLA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	FLA 1 - 2 WPG	WPG	FLA
2026-01-22	WPG 1 - 2 FLA	FLA	WPG
2024-11-19	WPG 6 - 3 FLA	WPG	FLA
2024-11-16	FLA 5 - 0 WPG	FLA	FLA
2023-11-24	FLA 0 - 3 WPG	WPG	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	8	0	0.66
1	FLA	15	0	0.72
2	WPG	11	0	0.37
2	FLA	8	0	0.25
3	WPG	11	0	0.60
3	FLA	10	0	0.41
4	WPG	3	0	0.34
4	FLA	4	0	0.33
5	WPG	2	0	0.13
5	FLA	2	2	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 2 Florida Panthers

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1