Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 63.2%

PIT: 36.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.21

PIT: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Tristan Jarry - 12-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.73 GAA

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

Stat	EDM	PIT
Season SV%	0.906	0.886
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	3.20

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Tristan Jarry	23	17	6	73.9%	3.50	1	-2.50
PIT	Arturs Silovs	32	30	2	93.8%	2.77	2	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.10
1	PIT	15	0	1.50
2	EDM	13	1	1.07
2	PIT	15	1	1.39
3	EDM	16	1	0.60
3	PIT	10	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 63.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown