Pittsburgh Penguins at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 61.7%

PIT: 38.3%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.14

PIT: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs PIT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-22	EDM 2 - 6 PIT	PIT	EDM
2025-12-16	PIT 4 - 6 EDM	EDM	EDM
2025-01-09	PIT 5 - 3 EDM	PIT	EDM
2024-10-25	EDM 4 - 0 PIT	EDM	EDM
2024-03-10	PIT 0 - 4 EDM	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	16	0	1.10
1	PIT	15	0	1.50
2	EDM	13	1	1.07
2	PIT	15	1	1.39
3	EDM	16	1	0.60
3	PIT	10	0	0.62

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 2 - 6 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1