Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-22 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 68.9%

DET: 31.1%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.53

DET: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	MIN	DET
Season SV%	0.912	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	33	30	3	90.9%	2.44	2	-0.56
DET	Cam Talbot	39	35	4	89.7%	3.21	2	-0.79

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MIN at home vs DET: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-05	DET 4 - 5 MIN	MIN	DET
2026-01-22	MIN 4 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN
2025-02-25	MIN 2 - 3 DET	DET	MIN
2025-02-22	DET 3 - 4 MIN	MIN	DET
2023-12-27	MIN 6 - 3 DET	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	14	0	0.68
1	DET	13	0	0.50
2	MIN	20	2	1.46
2	DET	18	2	1.18
3	MIN	15	0	1.00
3	DET	16	0	0.70
4	MIN	1	0	0.06
4	DET	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

Expected: 3.5 - 2.8