Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 53.6%

VGK: 46.4%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.22

VGK: 3.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	VGK
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	0	0.45
1	VGK	15	1	1.49
2	TOR	19	2	1.51
2	VGK	10	0	0.76
3	TOR	10	0	0.61
3	VGK	16	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.2 - 3.5