Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

TOR: 46.4%

VGK: 53.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.01

VGK: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 43%

TOR

Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	01:06	VGK	Goal
1	04:31	VGK	Goal
2	00:13	VGK	Goal
2	03:32	VGK	Goal
2	05:16	VGK	Goal
2	10:04	VGK	Goal
2	18:19	VGK	Goal
3	15:11	VGK	Goal
3	19:01	VGK	Goal

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2