Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 56.7%
VGK: 43.3%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.89
VGK: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 5.9
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | TOR | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.818 | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | TOR 3 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
| 2026-01-15 | VGK 6 - 5 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2025-03-05 | VGK 5 - 2 TOR | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-11-20 | TOR 3 - 0 VGK | TOR | TOR |
| 2024-02-27 | TOR 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | TOR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 04:31 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 01:06 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 18:19 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 10:04 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 05:16 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:32 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 00:13 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 19:01 | VGK | Goal |
| 3 | 15:11 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 2.9 - 3.1