Vegas Golden Knights at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 3 - 6 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 48.9%

VGK: 51.1%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.16

VGK: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	TOR	VGK
Season SV%	0.884	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.51	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	31	25	6	80.6%	3.56	3	-2.44
VGK	Adin Hill	21	18	3	85.7%	2.57	2	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	TOR 3 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-01-15	VGK 6 - 5 TOR	VGK	VGK
2025-03-05	VGK 5 - 2 TOR	VGK	VGK
2024-11-20	TOR 3 - 0 VGK	TOR	TOR
2024-02-27	TOR 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	7	0	0.45
1	VGK	15	1	1.49
2	TOR	19	2	1.51
2	VGK	10	0	0.76
3	TOR	10	0	0.61
3	VGK	16	2	1.31

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown