Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 18.0%

TBL: 82.0%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.82

TBL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	CHI	TBL
Season SV%	0.873	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.02	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	36	32	4	88.9%	7.07	3	3.07
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	21	3	87.5%	4.40	3	1.40

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	4	1	1.14
1	TBL	20	0	1.67
2	CHI	6	0	0.33
2	TBL	20	0	1.21
3	CHI	13	0	0.67
3	TBL	16	0	1.19
4	CHI	6	0	0.49
4	TBL	1	0	0.03
5	CHI	5	2	1.77
5	TBL	5	3	2.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 82.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.8 - 3.3