Tampa Bay Lightning at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning (SO)

Win Probability

CHI: 26.5%

TBL: 73.5%

Expected Goals

CHI: 2.11

TBL: 4.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 45%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CHI at home vs TBL: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	CHI 1 - 2 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-10-23	TBL 2 - 3 CHI	CHI	CHI
2025-01-28	TBL 1 - 4 CHI	CHI	TBL
2025-01-24	CHI 3 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL
2023-11-16	CHI 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	4	1	1.14
1	TBL	20	0	1.67
2	CHI	6	0	0.33
2	TBL	20	0	1.21
3	CHI	13	0	0.67
3	TBL	16	0	1.19
4	CHI	6	0	0.49
4	TBL	1	0	0.03
5	CHI	5	2	1.77
5	TBL	5	3	2.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 2 Tampa Bay Lightning

Expected: 2.1 - 4.0