St. Louis Blues at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 3 - 2 St. Louis Blues

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 58.1%

STL: 41.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.33

STL: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	DAL	STL
Season SV%	0.907	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	22	20	2	90.9%	2.11	1	0.11
STL	Jordan Binnington	19	16	3	84.2%	2.33	3	-0.67

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 82% • DAL at home vs STL: 6-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL
2025-03-02	DAL 6 - 3 STL	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	1	1.10
1	STL	7	0	0.22
2	DAL	6	1	0.49
2	STL	9	0	1.12
3	DAL	11	1	0.74
3	STL	13	1	0.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown