Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 3 - 7 Philadelphia Flyers

🚨 Upset Loss (71% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 71.4%

PHI: 28.6%

Expected Goals

COL: 4.34

PHI: 2.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	COL	PHI
Season SV%	0.924	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	20	13	7	65.0%	3.96	4	-3.04
PHI	Samuel Ersson	35	32	3	91.4%	3.20	4	0.20

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • COL at home vs PHI: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	COL 3 - 7 PHI	PHI	COL
2025-12-07	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	PHI
2025-02-02	COL 2 - 0 PHI	COL	COL
2024-11-18	PHI 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2024-01-20	PHI 4 - 7 COL	COL	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	21	3	1.71
1	PHI	11	0	0.82
2	COL	13	1	0.84
2	PHI	12	3	1.69
3	COL	16	0	0.65
3	PHI	9	1	1.45

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 71.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown