Philadelphia Flyers at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions
2026-01-23 • Ball Arena
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 7 Philadelphia Flyers
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
COL: 59.3%
PHI: 40.7%
Expected Goals
COL: 3.43
PHI: 2.80
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | COL | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.919 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | — |
| GAA | 2.13 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 17% • COL at home vs PHI: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | COL 3 - 7 PHI | PHI | COL |
| 2025-12-07 | PHI 2 - 3 COL | COL | PHI |
| 2025-02-02 | COL 2 - 0 PHI | COL | COL |
| 2024-11-18 | PHI 2 - 3 COL | COL | PHI |
| 2024-01-20 | PHI 4 - 7 COL | COL | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:57 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 15:02 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 12:12 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:01 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:29 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 07:17 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 16:53 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:24 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 02:00 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 00:56 | PHI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 59.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Colorado Avalanche 3 - 7 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.4 - 2.8