Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Win Probability

CGY: 42.8%

WSH: 57.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.94

WSH: 3.20

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	CGY
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	0	1.00
1	WSH	13	0	0.78
2	CGY	10	0	0.51
2	WSH	27	3	2.72
3	CGY	11	0	0.30
3	WSH	19	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

Expected: 2.9 - 3.2