Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions
2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome
Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CGY: 58.5%
WSH: 41.5%
Expected Goals
CGY: 3.13
WSH: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CGY
Dustin Wolf - 16-21-3 | 0.895 SV% | 3.00 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | CGY | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.877 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.962 |
| GAA | 2.82 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-23 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2025-02-25 | WSH 1 - 3 CGY | CGY | WSH |
| 2025-01-28 | CGY 1 - 3 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2024-03-18 | CGY 2 - 5 WSH | WSH | CGY |
| 2023-10-16 | WSH 3 - 2 CGY | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:09 | CGY | Goal |
| 2 | 06:33 | CGY | Goal |
| 3 | 19:07 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 07:35 | WSH | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 4.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.1 - 3.0