Washington Capitals at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 1 - 3 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 49.5%

WSH: 50.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.25

WSH: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	CGY	WSH
Season SV%	0.914	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Devin Cooley	38	35	3	92.1%	5.28	4	2.28
WSH	Logan Thompson	26	25	1	96.2%	1.80	0	0.80

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs WSH: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-09	WSH 7 - 3 CGY	WSH	WSH
2026-01-23	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-02-25	WSH 1 - 3 CGY	CGY	WSH
2025-01-28	CGY 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	CGY
2024-03-18	CGY 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	21	0	1.00
1	WSH	13	0	0.78
2	CGY	10	0	0.51
2	WSH	27	3	2.72
3	CGY	11	0	0.30
3	WSH	19	1	1.77

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown