New York Rangers at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2026-01-23 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 1 New York Rangers

🚨 Upset Win (56% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 44.3%

NYR: 55.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.73

NYR: 4.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

NYR

S. Martin

Stat	SJS	NYR
Season SV%	0.895	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	29	28	1	96.6%	3.34	2	2.34
NYR	S. Martin	32	29	3	90.6%	3.87	3	0.87

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • SJS at home vs NYR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-23	SJS 3 - 1 NYR	SJS	NYR
2025-10-23	NYR 5 - 6 SJS	SJS	NYR
2025-03-29	SJS 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	SJS
2024-11-14	NYR 3 - 2 SJS	NYR	NYR
2024-01-23	SJS 3 - 2 NYR	SJS	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	25	2	2.27
1	NYR	20	1	1.55
2	SJS	12	1	0.93
2	NYR	14	1	1.07
3	SJS	13	0	0.67
3	NYR	13	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown