Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-01-24 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 55.1%
BUF: 44.9%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.49
BUF: 3.19
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 56%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 29-24-2 | 0.906 SV% | 2.68 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | NYI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.851 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.906 | 0.967 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-31 | BUF 4 - 3 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 00:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 19:47 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:25 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:02 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:38 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.7
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.5 - 3.2
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.