Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 59.5%

BUF: 40.5%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.58

BUF: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

Stat	NYI	BUF
Season SV%	0.909	0.906
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.46	2.82

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	David Rittich	21	16	5	76.2%	2.58	2	-2.42
BUF	Alex Lyon	26	26	0	100.0%	2.43	1	2.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-31	BUF 4 - 3 NYI	BUF	BUF
2026-01-24	NYI 0 - 5 BUF	BUF	NYI
2025-12-20	BUF 3 - 2 NYI	BUF	BUF
2024-12-23	NYI 1 - 7 BUF	BUF	NYI
2024-11-30	NYI 3 - 0 BUF	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	17	0	0.76
1	BUF	11	0	0.62
2	NYI	14	1	1.30
2	BUF	12	0	1.04
3	NYI	10	0	0.37
3	BUF	9	2	0.92

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown