Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2026-01-24 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 57.4%
BUF: 42.6%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.47
BUF: 3.39
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 49%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 14-8-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.72 GAA
| Stat | NYI | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.934 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.967 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • NYI at home vs BUF: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | NYI 0 - 5 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2025-12-20 | BUF 3 - 2 NYI | BUF | BUF |
| 2024-12-23 | NYI 1 - 7 BUF | BUF | NYI |
| 2024-11-30 | NYI 3 - 0 BUF | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-11-01 | BUF 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | BUF |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 19:47 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 00:33 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:38 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 14:02 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:25 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 0 - 5 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.5 - 3.4