Carolina Hurricanes at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 4 Carolina Hurricanes

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 46.9%

CAR: 53.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 2.96

CAR: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

J. Reimer

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

Stat	OTT	CAR
Season SV%	—	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.33

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	J. Reimer	19	15	4	78.9%	2.34	2	-1.66
CAR	Brandon Bussi	37	36	1	97.3%	2.99	1	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • OTT at home vs CAR: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	0	0.85
1	CAR	11	0	0.79
2	OTT	9	0	0.69
2	CAR	13	1	0.98
3	OTT	21	1	1.46
3	CAR	5	1	0.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown