Tampa Bay Lightning at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 8 - 5 Tampa Bay Lightning

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 46.7%

TBL: 53.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.01

TBL: 3.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	CBJ	TBL
Season SV%	0.909	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	30	25	5	83.3%	2.23	1	-2.77
TBL	Jonas Johansson	31	23	8	74.2%	4.37	3	-3.63

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • CBJ at home vs TBL: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	TBL 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TBL
2026-01-24	CBJ 8 - 5 TBL	CBJ	TBL
2025-10-18	CBJ 3 - 2 TBL	CBJ	CBJ
2025-03-04	TBL 6 - 2 CBJ	TBL	TBL
2024-12-17	TBL 5 - 3 CBJ	TBL	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	14	0	0.77
1	TBL	12	1	0.44
2	CBJ	17	0	1.29
2	TBL	14	0	0.62
3	CBJ	11	3	2.31
3	TBL	21	0	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 13.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown