Detroit Red Wings at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 1 - 5 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 56.9%

DET: 43.1%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.18

DET: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	WPG	DET
Season SV%	0.907	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	31	26	5	83.9%	3.40	2	-1.60
DET	John Gibson	27	26	1	96.3%	2.16	0	1.16

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs DET: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	WPG 1 - 5 DET	DET	WPG
2025-12-31	DET 2 - 1 WPG	DET	DET
2025-01-04	WPG 2 - 4 DET	DET	WPG
2024-10-30	DET 2 - 6 WPG	WPG	WPG
2023-12-20	WPG 5 - 2 DET	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	12	0	0.62
1	DET	18	1	1.06
2	WPG	16	0	1.06
2	DET	13	0	0.74
3	WPG	10	0	0.48
3	DET	11	1	1.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown