Washington Capitals at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2026-01-24 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 5 Washington Capitals (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 67.5%

WSH: 32.5%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.36

WSH: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Connor Ingram - 2-2-0 | 0.883 SV% | 3.28 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	EDM	WSH
Season SV%	0.883	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.28	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Connor Ingram	27	22	5	81.5%	3.37	3	-1.63
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	40	34	6	85.0%	6.77	11	0.77

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • EDM at home vs WSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-24	EDM 6 - 5 WSH	EDM	EDM
2025-11-19	WSH 7 - 4 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-02-23	WSH 7 - 3 EDM	WSH	EDM
2025-01-21	EDM 2 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH
2024-03-13	EDM 7 - 2 WSH	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	15	2	1.51
1	WSH	7	0	0.43
2	EDM	17	4	2.12
2	WSH	19	0	0.90
3	EDM	24	3	2.49
3	WSH	20	3	2.04
4	EDM	2	2	0.65
4	WSH	0	0	0.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 6 - 5 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9