Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 36.5%

COL: 63.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 2.42

COL: 3.09

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	TOR	COL
Season SV%	0.914	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.74	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Joseph Woll	37	33	4	89.2%	4.94	5	0.94
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	33	32	1	97.0%	3.28	3	2.28

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	0.90
1	COL	21	1	1.50
2	TOR	15	0	0.82
2	COL	18	2	1.72
3	TOR	18	2	1.56
3	COL	12	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown