Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

TOR: 26.5%

COL: 73.5%

Expected Goals

TOR: 1.67

COL: 4.55

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	TOR 1 - 4 COL	COL	COL
2026-01-12	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	COL
2025-03-19	TOR 2 - 1 COL	TOR	COL
2025-03-08	COL 7 - 4 TOR	COL	COL
2024-02-24	COL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	18	1	0.90
1	COL	21	1	1.50
2	TOR	15	0	0.82
2	COL	18	2	1.72
3	TOR	18	2	1.56
3	COL	12	2	1.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 73.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 1.7 - 4.5