Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions
2026-01-25 • Scotiabank Arena
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TOR: 54.8%
COL: 45.2%
Expected Goals
TOR: 2.85
COL: 2.64
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 50%
Over 6.5: 32%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | TOR | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.914 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.910 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.914 | — |
| GAA | 2.74 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • TOR at home vs COL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | TOR 1 - 4 COL | COL | TOR |
| 2026-01-12 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | COL |
| 2025-03-19 | TOR 2 - 1 COL | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-03-08 | COL 7 - 4 TOR | COL | COL |
| 2024-02-24 | COL 3 - 4 TOR | TOR | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:31 | COL | Goal |
| 1 | 06:19 | COL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:53 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:58 | COL | Goal |
| 3 | 17:41 | COL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 54.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Toronto Maple Leafs 1 - 4 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 2.8 - 2.6