Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 47.8%

VGK: 52.2%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.01

VGK: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 37%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Mads Sogaard - 1-1-0 | 0.800 SV% | 5.24 GAA

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

Stat	OTT	VGK
Season SV%	0.800	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	5.24	2.73

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Mads Sogaard	20	19	1	95.0%	2.83	2	1.83
VGK	Adin Hill	32	25	7	78.1%	3.09	1	-3.91

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	VGK
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	VGK
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.72
1	VGK	10	1	1.28
2	OTT	21	1	1.11
2	VGK	12	0	1.06
3	OTT	19	0	1.26
3	VGK	9	1	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown