Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 7 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Win Probability

OTT: 56.2%

VGK: 43.8%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.55

VGK: 2.90

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	OTT
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	OTT
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	15	0	0.72
1	VGK	10	1	1.28
2	OTT	21	1	1.11
2	VGK	12	0	1.06
3	OTT	19	0	1.26
3	VGK	9	1	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 7 - 1 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9