Pittsburgh Penguins at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 44.9%

PIT: 55.1%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.89

PIT: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Kevin Lankinen - 6-10-3 | 0.885 SV% | 3.41 GAA

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

Stat	VAN	PIT
Season SV%	0.885	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.41	2.91

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Kevin Lankinen	25	22	3	88.0%	3.20	2	0.20
PIT	Stuart Skinner	32	30	2	93.8%	4.27	2	2.27

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VAN at home vs PIT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	VAN 2 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-10-21	PIT 5 - 1 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-11-27	PIT 5 - 4 VAN	PIT	PIT
2024-10-26	VAN 4 - 3 PIT	VAN	VAN
2024-02-27	VAN 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	10	0	0.74
1	PIT	10	0	0.65
2	VAN	18	1	1.41
2	PIT	20	1	1.69
3	VAN	24	1	2.13
3	PIT	12	1	0.86

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown