Florida Panthers at Chicago Blackhawks NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • United Center

Chicago Blackhawks 1 - 5 Florida Panthers

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CHI: 50.8%

FLA: 49.2%

Expected Goals

CHI: 3.92

FLA: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 38%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

Stat	CHI	FLA
Season SV%	0.909	0.899
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.63	2.96

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CHI	Spencer Knight	25	20	5	80.0%	2.69	2	-2.31
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	22	21	1	95.5%	1.95	0	0.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CHI at home vs FLA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	CHI 1 - 5 FLA	FLA	CHI
2025-10-07	FLA 3 - 2 CHI	FLA	CHI
2025-02-01	FLA 5 - 1 CHI	FLA	FLA
2024-11-21	CHI 3 - 1 FLA	CHI	FLA
2023-11-12	FLA 4 - 3 CHI	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CHI	12	0	0.48
1	FLA	10	0	0.63
2	CHI	11	0	0.80
2	FLA	14	1	1.03
3	CHI	10	0	0.67
3	FLA	9	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown