Anaheim Ducks at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-01-25 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 41.5%

ANA: 58.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.80

ANA: 3.41

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	CGY	ANA
Season SV%	0.901	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	21	17	4	81.0%	2.37	0	-1.63
ANA	Lukas Dostal	35	32	3	91.4%	3.37	2	0.37

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 57% • CGY at home vs ANA: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	ANA 2 - 4 CGY	CGY	ANA
2026-10-10	CGY 2 - 4 ANA	ANA	CGY
2026-04-04	ANA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	CGY
2026-03-26	CGY 2 - 3 ANA	ANA	ANA
2026-03-01	ANA 3 - 2 CGY	ANA	ANA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	20	1	1.30
1	ANA	12	0	0.61
2	CGY	14	0	0.66
2	ANA	12	0	0.83
3	CGY	13	1	1.22
3	ANA	13	0	0.39
4	CGY	3	0	0.20
4	ANA	4	0	0.54

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 2.8 - 3.4