Utah Hockey Club at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 2 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 57.9%

UTA: 42.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 4.04

UTA: 2.70

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	TBL	UTA
Season SV%	0.913	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	28	28	0	100.0%	3.99	7	3.99
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	29	27	2	93.1%	3.29	0	1.29

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • TBL at home vs UTA: 2-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-26	TBL 2 - 0 UTA	TBL	TBL
2025-11-02	UTA 2 - 4 TBL	TBL	UTA
2025-03-27	TBL 8 - 0 UTA	TBL	UTA
2025-03-22	UTA 6 - 4 TBL	UTA	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	1.01
1	UTA	19	1	1.47
2	TBL	12	0	1.07
2	UTA	14	4	1.53
3	TBL	18	0	1.22
3	UTA	11	2	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown