Boston Bruins at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-26 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Boston Bruins (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 47.2%

BOS: 52.8%

Expected Goals

NYR: 3.26

BOS: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

BOS

Joonas Korpisalo - 6-8-0 | 0.882 SV% | 3.60 GAA

Stat	NYR	BOS
Season SV%	0.924	0.882
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	3.60

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	24	21	3	87.5%	2.91	0	-0.09
BOS	Joonas Korpisalo	28	24	4	85.7%	3.03	0	-0.97

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 31% • NYR at home vs BOS: 5-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-29	BOS 3 - 0 NYR	BOS	NYR
2026-01-26	NYR 4 - 3 BOS	NYR	BOS
2026-01-10	BOS 10 - 2 NYR	BOS	BOS
2025-11-28	BOS 2 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-02-05	NYR 3 - 2 BOS	NYR	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	NYR	13	0.75
1	BOS	12	1.17
2	NYR	16	1.64
2	BOS	11	0.90
3	NYR	12	0.50
3	BOS	12	0.61
4	NYR	2	0.14
4	BOS	3	0.23

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 4 - 3 Boston Bruins

Expected: 3.3 - 3.0