New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2026-01-26 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 0 - 4 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 60.4%

NYI: 39.6%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.64

NYI: 2.74

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	PHI	NYI
Season SV%	0.868	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	23	19	4	82.6%	1.57	1	-2.43
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	21	0	100.0%	2.44	1	2.44

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • PHI at home vs NYI: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-03	NYI 1 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2026-01-26	PHI 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	PHI
2025-11-28	NYI 3 - 4 PHI	PHI	NYI
2025-10-25	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI
2025-04-12	PHI 4 - 3 NYI	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	12	0	1.10
1	NYI	9	0	0.35
2	PHI	9	1	0.64
2	NYI	9	0	0.28
3	PHI	10	0	0.70
3	NYI	11	1	0.93

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 4.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown