Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 50.3%

VGK: 49.7%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.29

VGK: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	MTL	VGK
Season SV%	0.889	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	32	2	94.1%	4.60	5	2.60
VGK	Akira Schmid	26	23	3	88.5%	3.84	3	0.84

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.11
1	VGK	11	0	0.56
2	MTL	17	2	1.66
2	VGK	15	2	1.73
3	MTL	7	0	0.49
3	VGK	18	3	2.23
4	MTL	5	0	0.59
4	VGK	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2