Vegas Golden Knights at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

MTL: 53.5%

VGK: 46.5%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.41

VGK: 3.12

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-27	MTL 3 - 2 VGK	MTL	MTL
2025-11-28	VGK 1 - 4 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-12-31	VGK 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	VGK
2024-11-23	MTL 2 - 6 VGK	VGK	MTL
2023-11-16	MTL 5 - 6 VGK	VGK	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	15	1	1.11
1	VGK	11	0	0.56
2	MTL	17	2	1.66
2	VGK	15	2	1.73
3	MTL	7	0	0.49
3	VGK	18	3	2.23
4	MTL	5	0	0.59
4	VGK	1	0	0.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.4 - 3.1