Dallas Stars at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 3 - 4 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 59.3%

DAL: 40.7%

Expected Goals

STL: 3.59

DAL: 3.25

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	STL	DAL
Season SV%	0.869	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.56	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Jordan Binnington	24	20	4	83.3%	3.13	4	-0.87
DAL	Jake Oettinger	26	23	3	88.5%	2.15	1	-0.85

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • STL at home vs DAL: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-02	DAL 0 - 4 STL	STL	STL
2026-02-04	DAL 5 - 4 STL	DAL	DAL
2026-01-27	STL 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	STL
2026-01-23	DAL 3 - 2 STL	DAL	DAL
2025-10-18	STL 3 - 1 DAL	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	11	1	0.88
1	DAL	15	1	1.13
2	STL	10	0	0.45
2	DAL	16	1	1.08
3	STL	14	0	0.82
3	DAL	10	2	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown