Washington Capitals at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-01-27 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 5 - 1 Washington Capitals

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 49.3%

WSH: 50.7%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.06

WSH: 2.79

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Philipp Grubauer - 7-3-1 | 0.920 SV% | 2.32 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	SEA	WSH
Season SV%	0.920	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.32	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Philipp Grubauer	20	19	1	95.0%	2.50	1	1.50
WSH	Logan Thompson	32	27	5	84.4%	2.69	1	-2.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • SEA at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-11	WSH 3 - 5 SEA	SEA	WSH
2026-01-27	SEA 5 - 1 WSH	SEA	WSH
2025-10-21	WSH 4 - 1 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-03-09	WSH 4 - 2 SEA	WSH	WSH
2025-01-23	SEA 0 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	20	1	1.09
1	WSH	7	0	0.61
2	SEA	14	0	0.78
2	WSH	9	0	0.50
3	SEA	13	0	0.82
3	WSH	13	1	1.39

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown