Philadelphia Flyers at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2026-01-28 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 5 - 3 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 54.7%

PHI: 45.3%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.36

PHI: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Elvis Merzlikins - 6-6-1 | 0.877 SV% | 4.04 GAA

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	CBJ	PHI
Season SV%	0.877	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	4.04	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Elvis Merzlikins	27	24	3	88.9%	3.46	3	0.46
PHI	Dan Vladar	31	26	5	83.9%	3.12	2	-1.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 45% • CBJ at home vs PHI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	PHI 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-03-14	PHI 1 - 2 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2026-01-28	CBJ 5 - 3 PHI	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-15	PHI 0 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	PHI
2025-01-14	CBJ 3 - 2 PHI	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	12	0	0.73
1	PHI	8	0	0.75
2	CBJ	19	0	0.90
2	PHI	13	0	0.92
3	CBJ	11	2	1.50
3	PHI	22	3	1.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown