Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Win Probability

MTL: 62.4%

COL: 37.6%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.77

COL: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MTL 7 - 3 COL	MTL	MTL
2025-11-29	COL 7 - 2 MTL	COL	COL
2025-03-22	MTL 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-04	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL
2024-03-26	COL 1 - 2 MTL	MTL	COL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	11	1	0.96
1	COL	10	0	0.39
2	MTL	15	0	1.01
2	COL	15	3	1.70
3	MTL	17	1	1.18
3	COL	15	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 62.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 10.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 3.8 - 3.1