Colorado Avalanche at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2026-01-29 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 43.2%
COL: 56.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.05
COL: 3.33
Total Goals
Median: 6.3
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 30-6-6 | 0.920 SV% | 2.07 GAA
| Stat | MTL | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.951 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.846 | 0.750 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs COL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | MTL 7 - 3 COL | MTL | COL |
| 2025-11-29 | COL 7 - 2 MTL | COL | COL |
| 2025-03-22 | MTL 4 - 5 COL | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-04 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
| 2024-03-26 | COL 1 - 2 MTL | MTL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:56 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 04:09 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 05:51 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:33 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:36 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 17:16 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 18:06 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:38 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 05:45 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 09:55 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 10.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 7 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.0 - 3.3
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