Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 48.7%

WSH: 51.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.30

WSH: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

WSH

Charlie Lindgren - 6-4-2 | 0.887 SV% | 3.07 GAA

Stat	DET	WSH
Season SV%	0.893	0.887
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	3.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	26	20	6	76.9%	4.47	3	-1.53
WSH	Charlie Lindgren	23	18	5	78.3%	4.43	2	-0.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs WSH: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	DET 3 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-12-21	DET 3 - 2 WSH	DET	WSH
2025-12-20	WSH 2 - 5 DET	DET	WSH
2025-03-18	WSH 4 - 1 DET	WSH	WSH
2025-03-07	WSH 5 - 2 DET	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	8	0	0.51
1	WSH	10	0	0.46
2	DET	13	0	0.67
2	WSH	10	0	0.44
3	DET	17	0	1.21
3	WSH	8	0	0.70
4	DET	2	0	0.25
4	WSH	3	0	0.13
5	DET	3	2	1.80
5	WSH	3	3	2.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Washington Capitals

Expected: 3.3 - 2.9