Washington Capitals at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions
2026-01-29 • Little Caesars Arena
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Washington Capitals (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
DET: 60.7%
WSH: 39.3%
Expected Goals
DET: 3.53
WSH: 2.95
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 61%
Over 6.5: 44%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
DET
John Gibson - 22-12-2 | 0.904 SV% | 2.62 GAA
WSH
Logan Thompson - 20-16-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.41 GAA
| Stat | DET | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.893 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.887 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.898 | 0.900 |
| GAA | 2.97 | 2.39 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs WSH: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-29 | DET 3 - 4 WSH | WSH | DET |
| 2025-12-21 | DET 3 - 2 WSH | DET | DET |
| 2025-12-20 | WSH 2 - 5 DET | DET | WSH |
| 2025-03-18 | WSH 4 - 1 DET | WSH | WSH |
| 2025-03-07 | WSH 5 - 2 DET | WSH | WSH |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 06:27 | WSH | Goal |
| 2 | 09:52 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 19:07 | DET | Goal |
| 3 | 18:20 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 14:44 | WSH | Goal |
| 3 | 09:36 | WSH | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | DET | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | DET | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | DET | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | DET | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | DET | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.5
Score Breakdown
Detroit Red Wings 3 - 4 Washington Capitals
Expected: 3.5 - 3.0