Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-01-29 • Benchmark International Arena
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 73.9%
WPG: 26.1%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.38
WPG: 2.52
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 37%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 39-15-4 | 0.911 SV% | 2.31 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | TBL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.919 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.925 | 0.937 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 100% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-05 | WPG 4 - 1 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2026-01-29 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-14 | TBL 4 - 1 WPG | TBL | TBL |
| 2024-11-03 | WPG 7 - 4 TBL | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-01-02 | WPG 4 - 2 TBL | WPG | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:58 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:37 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 12:25 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 15:17 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:52 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 73.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 3.4 - 2.5
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