Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 57.9%

WPG: 42.1%

Expected Goals

TBL: 2.88

WPG: 3.07

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

WPG

Connor Hellebuyck - 9-10-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.51 GAA

Stat	TBL	WPG
Season SV%	0.913	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	2.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	24	23	1	95.8%	2.00	1	1.00
WPG	Connor Hellebuyck	37	33	4	89.2%	3.38	2	-0.62

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • TBL at home vs WPG: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.86
1	WPG	16	0	0.75
2	TBL	15	0	0.81
2	WPG	10	0	0.57
3	TBL	19	2	1.71
3	WPG	11	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 57.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown