Winnipeg Jets at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Win Probability

TBL: 67.1%

WPG: 32.9%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.20

WPG: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	WPG 4 - 1 TBL	WPG	WPG
2026-01-29	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-14	TBL 4 - 1 WPG	TBL	TBL
2024-11-03	WPG 7 - 4 TBL	WPG	WPG
2024-01-02	WPG 4 - 2 TBL	WPG	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	14	0	0.86
1	WPG	16	0	0.75
2	TBL	15	0	0.81
2	WPG	10	0	0.57
3	TBL	19	2	1.71
3	WPG	11	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 67.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 4 - 1 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.2 - 2.6