New York Islanders at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 1 - 2 New York Islanders

🚨 Upset Loss (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 52.8%

NYI: 47.2%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.97

NYI: 3.02

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

Stat	NYR	NYI
Season SV%	0.924	0.910
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	2.55

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	21	19	2	90.5%	2.21	1	0.21
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	21	20	1	95.2%	1.70	2	0.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • NYR at home vs NYI: 6-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-06	NYR 5 - 2 NYI	NYR	NYR
2026-01-29	NYR 1 - 2 NYI	NYI	NYR
2026-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-12-27	NYI 2 - 0 NYR	NYI	NYI
2025-11-08	NYR 0 - 5 NYI	NYI	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	13	0	0.54
1	NYI	12	0	0.32
2	NYR	10	1	0.51
2	NYI	11	0	0.52
3	NYR	8	1	0.65
3	NYI	13	1	1.37

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown