Chicago Blackhawks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 2 Chicago Blackhawks

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 78.5%

CHI: 21.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.87

CHI: 2.42

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

CHI

Arvid Soderblom - 4-7-1 | 0.873 SV% | 4.02 GAA

Stat	PIT	CHI
Season SV%	0.886	0.873
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	4.02

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	20	18	2	90.0%	2.39	4	0.39
CHI	Arvid Soderblom	45	39	6	86.7%	4.87	1	-1.13

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs CHI: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	PIT 6 - 2 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-12-28	CHI 3 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-04-08	PIT 5 - 0 CHI	PIT	PIT
2025-04-06	CHI 3 - 1 PIT	CHI	PIT
2024-02-15	CHI 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.63
1	CHI	13	2	1.07
2	PIT	36	1	2.76
2	CHI	9	1	0.77
3	PIT	22	0	1.48
3	CHI	9	1	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 7.3

Score Breakdown