Calgary Flames at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 1 Calgary Flames

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 61.1%

CGY: 38.9%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.55

CGY: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	MIN	CGY
Season SV%	0.912	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	30	29	1	96.7%	2.71	0	1.71
CGY	Devin Cooley	24	20	4	83.3%	2.96	2	-1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • MIN at home vs CGY: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	6	0	0.44
1	CGY	20	0	1.01
2	MIN	12	0	0.37
2	CGY	14	0	0.73
3	MIN	21	2	2.15
3	CGY	14	0	0.97

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown