Anaheim Ducks at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 0 Anaheim Ducks

🚨 Upset Win (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 42.6%

ANA: 57.4%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.75

ANA: 3.23

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 67%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

ANA

Lukas Dostal - 13-9-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.15 GAA

Stat	VAN	ANA
Season SV%	0.000	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	3.15

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	33	33	0	100.0%	3.46	3	3.46
ANA	Lukas Dostal	26	24	2	92.3%	2.86	2	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • VAN at home vs ANA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	ANA 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	ANA
2026-03-24	VAN 3 - 5 ANA	ANA	VAN
2026-01-29	VAN 2 - 0 ANA	VAN	ANA
2025-11-26	ANA 4 - 5 VAN	VAN	ANA
2025-04-05	VAN 6 - 2 ANA	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	13	0	0.76
1	ANA	12	0	0.72
2	VAN	16	0	0.84
2	ANA	20	2	1.66
3	VAN	15	2	1.26
3	ANA	17	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown