Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 61.0%

DAL: 39.0%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.18

DAL: 2.86

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Adin Hill - 1-0-2 | 0.888 SV% | 2.73 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	VGK	DAL
Season SV%	0.888	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.73	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Adin Hill	29	23	6	79.3%	5.30	6	-0.70
DAL	Jake Oettinger	23	19	4	82.6%	2.58	1	-1.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	DAL
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.82
1	DAL	12	0	0.69
2	VGK	11	0	0.66
2	DAL	18	3	1.63
3	VGK	11	0	0.70
3	DAL	11	1	0.98
4	VGK	2	0	0.23
4	DAL	3	0	0.36
5	VGK	2	0	0.16
5	DAL	3	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9