Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 61.6%

DAL: 38.4%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.32

DAL: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	VGK
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	13	1	0.82
1	DAL	12	0	0.69
2	VGK	11	0	0.66
2	DAL	18	3	1.63
3	VGK	11	0	0.70
3	DAL	11	1	0.98
4	VGK	2	0	0.23
4	DAL	3	0	0.36
5	VGK	2	0	0.16
5	DAL	3	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.3 - 2.7