Dallas Stars at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (65% underdog)

Win Probability

VGK: 64.5%

DAL: 35.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.13

DAL: 2.61

Total Goals

Median: 4.4

Over 5.5: 34%

Over 6.5: 21%

VGK

Akira Schmid - 16-10-6 | 0.893 SV% | 2.59 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 35-12-6 | 0.899 SV% | 2.59 GAA

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • VGK at home vs DAL: 3-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	DAL 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-03-10	DAL 2 - 1 VGK	DAL	DAL
2026-01-29	VGK 4 - 5 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-28	VGK 3 - 4 DAL	DAL	VGK
2025-01-24	DAL 4 - 3 VGK	DAL	DAL

Period	Time	Team	Scorer
1	01:37	DAL	Goal
2	04:07	VGK	Goal
2	08:46	DAL	Goal
2	14:16	DAL	Goal
2	16:43	DAL	Goal
3	04:04	DAL	Goal
3	13:54	DAL	Goal
3	19:11	VGK	Goal
5	00:00	VGK	Goal
5	00:00	VGK	Goal

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 64.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 5 Dallas Stars

Expected: 3.1 - 2.6