Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken NHL Predictions

2026-01-29 • Climate Pledge Arena

Seattle Kraken 5 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SEA: 56.7%

TOR: 43.3%

Expected Goals

SEA: 3.35

TOR: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

TOR

Anthony Stolarz - 6-5-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.51 GAA

Stat	SEA	TOR
Season SV%	0.903	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.77	3.51

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SEA	Joey Daccord	31	29	2	93.5%	3.23	0	1.23
TOR	Anthony Stolarz	22	17	5	77.3%	1.67	1	-3.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • SEA at home vs TOR: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	SEA 5 - 2 TOR	SEA	SEA
2025-10-18	TOR 3 - 4 SEA	SEA	TOR
2025-02-06	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-10-31	TOR 4 - 1 SEA	TOR	TOR
2024-01-21	SEA 1 - 3 TOR	TOR	SEA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SEA	13	0	0.60
1	TOR	17	0	1.25
2	SEA	7	0	0.30
2	TOR	21	0	1.42
3	SEA	9	1	0.77
3	TOR	12	0	0.56

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown