Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 0 - 5 Colorado Avalanche

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 35.7%

COL: 64.3%

Expected Goals

DET: 2.60

COL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	DET	COL
Season SV%	0.893	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.97	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	John Gibson	21	16	5	76.2%	3.49	3	-1.51
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	28	28	0	100.0%	2.55	0	2.55

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • DET at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	15	0	0.74
1	COL	15	1	0.79
2	DET	15	0	0.78
2	COL	21	2	2.01
3	DET	13	0	1.03
3	COL	10	0	0.69

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.5

Score Breakdown