New York Rangers at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 6 - 5 New York Rangers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 64.4%

NYR: 35.6%

Expected Goals

PIT: 4.19

NYR: 2.99

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Stuart Skinner - 12-11-4 | 0.888 SV% | 2.91 GAA

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

Stat	PIT	NYR
Season SV%	0.888	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.91	2.11

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Stuart Skinner	20	15	5	75.0%	2.28	2	-2.72
NYR	Jonathan Quick	34	28	6	82.4%	5.57	5	-0.43

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 42% • PIT at home vs NYR: 6-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-28	NYR 3 - 2 PIT	NYR	PIT
2026-01-31	PIT 6 - 5 NYR	PIT	PIT
2025-10-11	PIT 1 - 6 NYR	NYR	NYR
2025-10-07	NYR 0 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-02-23	PIT 3 - 5 NYR	NYR	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	15	0	1.09
1	NYR	13	1	1.04
2	PIT	18	2	1.50
2	NYR	4	0	0.23
3	PIT	24	3	2.98
3	NYR	13	1	1.00

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 7.2

Score Breakdown