Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

Win Probability

WSH: 47.2%

CAR: 52.8%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.05

CAR: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 62%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 69% • WSH at home vs CAR: 5-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR
2025-05-15	WSH 1 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-05-12	CAR 5 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	23	1	1.69
1	CAR	23	1	1.24
2	WSH	11	3	1.08
2	CAR	13	1	0.76
3	WSH	25	0	1.77
3	CAR	7	0	0.57
4	WSH	4	1	0.61
4	CAR	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1