Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 47.4%

CAR: 52.6%

Expected Goals

WSH: 2.89

CAR: 3.57

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

C. Stevenson

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

Stat	WSH	CAR
Season SV%	—	0.865
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	3.38

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	C. Stevenson	22	19	3	86.4%	2.60	2	-0.40
CAR	Frederik Andersen	42	38	4	90.5%	5.15	5	1.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 68% • WSH at home vs CAR: 6-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	CAR 4 - 2 WSH	CAR	CAR
2026-10-02	CAR 2 - 5 WSH	WSH	WSH
2026-01-31	WSH 4 - 3 CAR	WSH	CAR
2025-12-11	WSH 2 - 3 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-11-11	CAR 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	23	1	1.69
1	CAR	23	1	1.24
2	WSH	11	3	1.08
2	CAR	13	1	0.76
3	WSH	25	0	1.77
3	CAR	7	0	0.57
4	WSH	4	1	0.61
4	CAR	1	0	0.03

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Washington Capitals 4 - 3 Carolina Hurricanes

Expected: 2.9 - 3.6