Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

BUF: 50.3%

MTL: 49.7%

Expected Goals

BUF: 2.97

MTL: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

BUF

Alex Lyon - 10-6-3 | 0.906 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	BUF	MTL
Season SV%	0.906	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
BUF	Alex Lyon	31	27	4	87.1%	4.74	7	0.74
MTL	Jakub Dobes	38	36	2	94.7%	4.70	6	2.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 32% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	0.94
1	MTL	13	1	1.16
2	BUF	16	3	1.86
2	MTL	10	0	0.32
3	BUF	24	2	1.91
3	MTL	19	6	3.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown