Montreal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • KeyBank Center

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Win Probability

BUF: 44.6%

MTL: 55.4%

Expected Goals

BUF: 3.00

MTL: 3.18

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 47% • BUF at home vs MTL: 2-8

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-18	BUF 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-16	MTL 3 - 8 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-14	BUF 3 - 6 MTL	MTL	BUF
2026-05-12	MTL 2 - 3 BUF	BUF	BUF
2026-05-10	MTL 6 - 2 BUF	MTL	MTL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	BUF	16	1	0.94
1	MTL	13	1	1.16
2	BUF	16	3	1.86
2	MTL	10	0	0.32
3	BUF	24	2	1.91
3	MTL	19	6	3.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Buffalo Sabres 2 - 4 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.0 - 3.2