Nashville Predators at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 3 - 4 Nashville Predators

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 50.8%

NSH: 49.2%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.07

NSH: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

NSH

Juuse Saros - 15-13-3 | 0.897 SV% | 2.93 GAA

Stat	NYI	NSH
Season SV%	0.910	0.897
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.93

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	42	38	4	90.5%	4.97	6	0.97
NSH	Juuse Saros	30	27	3	90.0%	3.07	3	0.07

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • NYI at home vs NSH: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	NYI 3 - 4 NSH	NSH	NYI
2026-01-08	NSH 2 - 1 NYI	NSH	NSH
2025-04-08	NSH 7 - 6 NYI	NSH	NSH
2025-03-01	NYI 7 - 4 NSH	NYI	NYI
2024-04-06	NYI 2 - 0 NSH	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	16	2	1.19
1	NSH	15	3	1.63
2	NYI	15	0	1.28
2	NSH	28	2	2.18
3	NYI	8	1	0.59
3	NSH	13	1	1.16

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown