Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions
2026-01-31 • Rogers Arena
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VAN: 51.0%
TOR: 49.0%
Expected Goals
VAN: 3.32
TOR: 3.69
Total Goals
Median: 8.1
Over 5.5: 81%
Over 6.5: 68%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VAN
Kevin Lankinen - 11-26-5 | 0.877 SV% | 3.65 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 15-16-7 | 0.898 SV% | 3.34 GAA
| Stat | VAN | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.885 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.872 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.889 | 0.966 |
| GAA | 3.41 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VAN at home vs TOR: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-31 | VAN 2 - 3 TOR | TOR | VAN |
| 2026-01-10 | TOR 5 - 0 VAN | TOR | VAN |
| 2025-02-08 | VAN 2 - 1 TOR | VAN | TOR |
| 2025-01-11 | TOR 0 - 3 VAN | VAN | TOR |
| 2024-01-20 | VAN 6 - 4 TOR | VAN | VAN |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | 01:55 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 13:34 | VAN | Goal |
| 2 | 14:45 | VAN | Goal |
| 3 | 02:32 | VAN | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VAN | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VAN | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 51.0%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 7.0
Score Breakdown
Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.3 - 3.7
Like this analysis? Get it daily.
Short, data-driven emails. Unsubscribe any time.