Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

Win Probability

VAN: 50.5%

TOR: 49.5%

Expected Goals

VAN: 2.96

TOR: 3.11

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	VAN
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	VAN

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	9	0	0.31
1	TOR	13	0	0.49
2	VAN	17	1	1.20
2	TOR	18	1	1.33
3	VAN	11	0	0.34
3	TOR	28	2	2.04
4	VAN	7	1	0.52
4	TOR	8	2	1.32
5	VAN	2	0	0.15
5	TOR	2	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.0 - 3.1