Toronto Maple Leafs at Vancouver Canucks NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Rogers Arena

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VAN: 48.2%

TOR: 51.8%

Expected Goals

VAN: 3.41

TOR: 3.27

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	VAN	TOR
Season SV%	0.000	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	0.00	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	43	39	4	90.7%	7.06	7	3.06
TOR	Joseph Woll	31	29	2	93.5%	2.52	2	0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VAN at home vs TOR: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-31	VAN 2 - 3 TOR	TOR	TOR
2026-01-10	TOR 5 - 0 VAN	TOR	TOR
2025-02-08	VAN 2 - 1 TOR	VAN	TOR
2025-01-11	TOR 0 - 3 VAN	VAN	TOR
2024-01-20	VAN 6 - 4 TOR	VAN	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VAN	9	0	0.31
1	TOR	13	0	0.49
2	VAN	17	1	1.20
2	TOR	18	1	1.33
3	VAN	11	0	0.34
3	TOR	28	2	2.04
4	VAN	7	1	0.52
4	TOR	8	2	1.32
5	VAN	2	0	0.15
5	TOR	2	2	1.88

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 51.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Vancouver Canucks 2 - 3 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.3