Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 2 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 59.8%

DAL: 40.2%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.32

DAL: 2.77

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

DAL

Casey DeSmith - 9-2-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.44 GAA

Stat	UTA	DAL
Season SV%	0.895	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.44

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	32	29	3	90.6%	3.60	3	0.60
DAL	Casey DeSmith	14	12	2	85.7%	2.08	3	0.08

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • UTA at home vs DAL: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	UTA
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	DAL
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	10	1	0.95
1	DAL	16	2	1.52
2	UTA	7	1	0.52
2	DAL	15	0	0.32
3	UTA	9	1	0.61
3	DAL	19	1	1.76

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown