Seattle Kraken at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2026-01-31 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 2 - 3 Seattle Kraken

🚨 Upset Loss (67% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 66.5%

SEA: 33.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.98

SEA: 2.66

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

SEA

Joey Daccord - 10-9-5 | 0.903 SV% | 2.77 GAA

Stat	VGK	SEA
Season SV%	0.895	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.77

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	23	20	3	87.0%	2.65	3	-0.35
SEA	Joey Daccord	29	27	2	93.1%	2.86	3	0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • VGK at home vs SEA: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-15	VGK 4 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-09	SEA 4 - 3 VGK	SEA	VGK
2026-01-31	VGK 2 - 3 SEA	SEA	VGK
2025-10-11	SEA 2 - 1 VGK	SEA	VGK
2025-04-10	VGK 2 - 1 SEA	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	10	0	0.52
1	SEA	9	1	0.77
2	VGK	19	2	1.49
2	SEA	14	1	1.07
3	VGK	14	1	0.85
3	SEA	12	1	0.81

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 66.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown