Boston Bruins at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions
2026-02-01 • Raymond James Stadium
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
TBL: 64.1%
BOS: 35.9%
Expected Goals
TBL: 3.78
BOS: 3.17
Total Goals
Median: 6.9
Over 5.5: 68%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
BOS
Jeremy Swayman - 22-12-3 | 0.903 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | TBL | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.913 | 0.903 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.921 | 0.889 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.853 | 0.891 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.84 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • TBL at home vs BOS: 4-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-01 | TBL 6 - 5 BOS | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-13 | BOS 3 - 4 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-15 | BOS 2 - 6 TBL | TBL | BOS |
| 2025-03-08 | TBL 0 - 4 BOS | BOS | TBL |
| 2025-01-14 | BOS 6 - 2 TBL | BOS | BOS |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:03 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 15:36 | BOS | Goal |
| 1 | 11:24 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 00:11 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:13 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 15:50 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 10:28 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 08:18 | BOS | Goal |
| 2 | 02:22 | BOS | Goal |
| 3 | 11:50 | TBL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 64.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 11.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Tampa Bay Lightning 6 - 5 Boston Bruins
Expected: 3.8 - 3.2