Ottawa Senators at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 53.7%

OTT: 46.3%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.23

OTT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	PIT	OTT
Season SV%	0.886	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	31	28	3	90.3%	5.49	6	2.49
OTT	Linus Ullmark	16	14	2	87.5%	2.68	1	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 78% • PIT at home vs OTT: 1-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-26	OTT 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	OTT
2026-02-02	PIT 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	PIT
2025-12-18	OTT 4 - 0 PIT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-30	PIT 1 - 0 OTT	PIT	PIT
2025-01-11	PIT 0 - 5 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	13	0	1.20
1	OTT	20	2	1.46
2	PIT	6	0	0.31
2	OTT	15	1	1.29
3	PIT	7	1	1.17
3	OTT	14	3	2.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown