New York Islanders at Washington Capitals NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Capital One Arena

Washington Capitals 4 - 1 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WSH: 53.9%

NYI: 46.1%

Expected Goals

WSH: 3.41

NYI: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WSH

C. Stevenson

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	WSH	NYI
Season SV%	—	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	—	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WSH	C. Stevenson	30	29	1	96.7%	2.99	0	1.99
NYI	David Rittich	25	21	4	84.0%	3.18	3	-0.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • WSH at home vs NYI: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WSH	8	1	0.74
1	NYI	20	0	1.08
2	WSH	12	0	0.50
2	NYI	13	0	0.77
3	WSH	15	2	1.94
3	NYI	17	0	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown