Montreal Canadiens at Minnesota Wild NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Grand Casino Arena

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MIN: 56.3%

MTL: 43.7%

Expected Goals

MIN: 3.52

MTL: 2.93

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

Stat	MIN	MTL
Season SV%	0.912	0.889
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.47	3.01

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	20	17	3	85.0%	1.74	3	-1.26
MTL	Jakub Dobes	24	20	4	83.3%	2.96	0	-1.04

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 80% • MIN at home vs MTL: 5-0

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN
2026-01-20	MTL 4 - 3 MIN	MTL	MTL
2025-01-30	MTL 0 - 4 MIN	MIN	MTL
2024-11-14	MIN 3 - 0 MTL	MIN	MIN
2023-12-21	MIN 4 - 3 MTL	MIN	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MIN	13	0	0.62
1	MTL	6	1	0.42
2	MIN	15	0	1.10
2	MTL	14	0	0.56
3	MIN	18	0	0.83
3	MTL	8	2	0.71
4	MIN	4	0	0.42
4	MTL	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Minnesota Wild 4 - 3 Montreal Canadiens

Expected: 3.5 - 2.9