Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Ball Arena

Colorado Avalanche 0 - 2 Detroit Red Wings

🚨 Upset Loss (75% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

COL: 75.2%

DET: 24.8%

Expected Goals

COL: 3.87

DET: 2.71

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

DET

John Gibson - 13-8-1 | 0.893 SV% | 2.97 GAA

Stat	COL	DET
Season SV%	0.924	0.893
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.07	2.97

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	25	23	2	92.0%	3.46	2	1.46
DET	John Gibson	21	21	0	100.0%	2.26	1	2.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • COL at home vs DET: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	COL 0 - 2 DET	DET	COL
2026-01-31	DET 0 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-03-25	COL 5 - 2 DET	COL	COL
2024-12-07	DET 1 - 2 COL	COL	COL
2024-03-06	COL 7 - 2 DET	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	COL	10	1	0.92
1	DET	16	1	1.10
2	COL	12	0	0.65
2	DET	20	0	0.90
3	COL	15	0	0.69
3	DET	6	1	1.46

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown