Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 57.4%

TOR: 42.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.25

TOR: 2.83

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	CGY	TOR
Season SV%	0.901	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	22	18	4	81.8%	2.68	2	-1.32
TOR	Joseph Woll	30	28	2	93.3%	2.18	0	0.18

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	TOR
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.57
1	TOR	7	0	0.41
2	CGY	12	0	0.75
2	TOR	15	1	1.06
3	CGY	16	0	0.87
3	TOR	13	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown