Toronto Maple Leafs at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2026-02-02 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

CGY: 53.5%

TOR: 46.5%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.30

TOR: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • CGY at home vs TOR: 0-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	CGY 2 - 4 TOR	TOR	CGY
2025-10-28	TOR 4 - 3 CGY	TOR	CGY
2025-03-17	TOR 6 - 2 CGY	TOR	TOR
2025-02-04	CGY 3 - 6 TOR	TOR	CGY
2024-01-18	CGY 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	15	0	0.57
1	TOR	7	0	0.41
2	CGY	12	0	0.75
2	TOR	15	1	1.06
3	CGY	16	0	0.87
3	TOR	13	1	1.20

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Calgary Flames 2 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.3 - 3.1