Ottawa Senators at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2026-02-03 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 4 - 3 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 63.1%

OTT: 36.9%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.35

OTT: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 54%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Brandon Bussi - 13-2-1 | 0.901 SV% | 2.33 GAA

OTT

J. Reimer

Stat	CAR	OTT
Season SV%	0.901	—
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	—

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Brandon Bussi	27	24	3	88.9%	3.37	3	0.37
OTT	J. Reimer	19	15	4	78.9%	2.27	1	-1.73

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 77% • CAR at home vs OTT: 5-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-25	OTT 2 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-23	OTT 1 - 2 CAR	CAR	CAR
2026-04-20	CAR 3 - 2 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-18	CAR 2 - 0 OTT	CAR	CAR
2026-04-05	OTT 6 - 3 CAR	OTT	CAR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	14	0	0.87
1	OTT	20	1	1.34
2	CAR	14	0	0.70
2	OTT	16	2	1.65
3	CAR	4	1	0.69
3	OTT	10	0	0.38

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 63.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown